Given that both ZywOo and donk had off days against them, though, and the fact that karrigan’s own performances were well under par, is this the start of a Falcons era? Or a fleeting moment of glory that will pass as quickly as it came?

It’s been over a week since it happened, but I still can’t help but watch Falcons’ winning moment in IEM Cologne every day.

NiKo jumping up, banging the desk, and then pulling m0NESY in for a hug was a moment that felt like it had been built up to from the day I first picked up Counter-Strike, and getting to experience it in person was something truly, truly special.

And that’s why I don’t exactly like that I feel like I need to write this deep dive.

Because, whilst everyone now is praising Falcons and expects them to become the new top dogs of the CS world because karrigan has once again enchanted them, I’m here to be the voice of reason once again.

And sometimes, being that voice of reason isn’t as fun as I want it to be.

The perfect storm

Gambit, Cloud9, Outsiders, NAVI - what should all of these Major winners have taught you?

That sometimes everything just goes right for you.

When you’re not fnatic, SK, Astralis, or Vitality - when you’re not the undisputed best team in the world - sometimes you just need a little bit of luck, or for players to hit their peak at the right moment, in order to win a Major.

In a way, that’s the magic of the Major. A degree of intangible nature that only seems to come about for Counter-Strike’s biggest competition, that lifts players to heights they never reached before or after that moment, and sees them write their names into the legacy of our great game.

In many ways, that’s what it felt like happened with Falcons in Cologne. Falcons undeniably have great players, but both NiKo and TeSeS have admitted to feeling uncomfortable in their roles, and these are roles that they’ve now played in for extended periods of time. karrigan is good, but he’s not a miracle worker; he didn’t magically make them feel comfortable forevermore in such a short amount of time.

However, in Cologne, if it was your first time watching CS, you’d assume these players were the gold standard for their roles.

NiKo had by far his highest-rated Major in a Falcons shirt, and his fourth highest-rated tournament overall since kyousuke arrived and he cucked himself for the wonderkid. TeSeS also performed to a higher standard than he typically does, and with karrigan performing like my Premier teammates, these two players improving their gameplay was key to Falcons going all the way.

donk, ZywOo, and the rest of Vitality had off days, too. And that wasn’t just because of solid anti-stratting, they all just played pretty sh-t. Had they not, Falcons probably would have gone out in quarters given how close every game was.

The handless leader

Speaking of karrigan, f-ck me, he is sh-t now.

Okay, maybe not entirely; he’s clearly still a competent IGL now that he isn’t playing with jcobbb and broky, but mechanically he is now just so awful that Falcons can’t hope to win consistently with a player like him on their team.

He’ll just be abused more often than not, and if any Falcons players have off days and their opponents do not, that will end in painful defeats.

Let’s put it into perspective.

What these two tweets should tell you is what karrigan did during Cologne doesn’t happen very often, in fact, it’s only ever happened once before… which was also at a Cologne… if I had a quarter and all that.

Now, there is something slightly different to karrigan doing this than any other team before. He has NiKo, m0NESY, and kyousuke at his disposal.

This is a star trio that allows for the IGL to be a little useless in the fragging department, but when the history is so clear - is this something that can really be relied upon? I’m not so sure.

What happens when NiKo has an off-event? Or when m0NESY isn’t absolutely electric? Or when kyousuke can’t find his openings or has a slight dip in trade proficiency?

Or worse, what happens when the likes of donk, ropz, flameZ, and ZywOo actually turn up against them?

Ask yourself, in these very real possibilities, do you really see Falcons winning many more trophies? Or do you see them returning to their ways as the second-place saints?

One more star

This is one way to guarantee success, though.

And listen, before I get into it, this isn’t me saying that Falcons will never win again. They will. There’ll be events they attend where one of Spirit or Vitality doesn’t, and whichever one that’s there gets handled by someone else. There’ll be events where they beat either one of those teams, too.

But they can change that.

They can change that by once again dipping into the meme market and signing one more star, although admittedly, that star might be impossible to attain.

The star I’m referring to is b1t.

b1t is perfect for Falcons. Inarguably an upgrade on TeSeS, with whom he shares six out of seven CT roles, it’s also very easy to believe that b1t would easily adapt to the selflessness the Dane displays on the T side. Given that b1t is also a better player than TeSeS, it’s then easy to believe he would also thrive in those T-side roles.

In my opinion, even if he isn’t yet in those roles, b1t is potentially the ultimate form of the role that is currently known as “the mezii role”. That necessary glue player that makes all great teams tick.

b1t could not just move into those roles; he could dominate them. Whichever team finally gets him into position to do so will reap the rewards of it.

NAVI aren’t in the position to do so, and probably won’t be for a long time unless they were to sign someone like frozen, but Falcons are there right now, and although their Head of Esports may have denied Richard Lewis’ statements, I doubt that Richard would have lied about them to begin with.

Given how close b1t is to m0NESY, and the fact that Falcons were always going to build a team more competitive than NAVI’s, it shouldn’t be surprising to anyone that b1t would at least float the idea of moving there. NAVI will try to keep him as the jewel in their Ukrainian crown, but I see b1t and m0NESY playing together as a when, not an if.

If Falcons could make that happen now, even with karrigan’s fragging, I truly believe they’d be unstoppable. I don’t think they’d just smash apart the Vitality era, I think they’d instantly establish one of their own, one that could potentially be even more dominant than the one we’re currently witnessing.

If they can’t, though, I don’t expect much to change at all. Sure, Falcons have a solid record against Vitality, but how long is it before apEX and XTQZZZ figure out how to turn that around?

Falcons did an incredible thing in Cologne, and I’m glad they did. But there’s a reason they lost to Legacy and Spirit so easily in the tournaments leading up to Cologne, and there’s a reason they scraped through so many close games in Cologne.

You can’t rely on these types of victories forever, and ultimately, that’s what will cost them in the long run.