It’s almost Major time, and although it seemed like a wrap for the Vitality back-to-back-to-back less than a month ago, recent events may have shaken that up.

Likewise, even playoff places have now been blown right open, with the stocks of teams like Astralis, FUT, and PARIVISION declining, and teams like GamerLegion and Legacy making a late push for LANXESS contention.

Then there’s the other end of the spectrum, the teams down in the Stage 1 doldrums that make you question whether the Major really needs 32 teams, or if Australian teams should just be barred from receiving invites.

There are plenty of teams to get through, and plenty of teams I couldn’t give a flying f-ck about watching play any time soon, so let’s see how they come out in the rankings.

The Major problems

I’ve made it no secret in the past that I think the Major has a serious problem because of Stage 1.

BO1’s tanks its credibility, and the teams involved tank it even further. A good fix would be to scrap regional invites and just make it the top 32, but we haven’t got that, so now there’s a list of teams that we have to watch that are the Counter-Strike equivalent of taking a bath with a toaster.

Chief of all of those teams, I’m sure, will be tHUNDER DOWNUNDER. Now, it’s great for them that they made it to the Major, but let’s not f-ck about, they’ll be a complete waste of time.

The other Aussie team at the event, FlyQuest, also fall under this category. I’ve got into some hot water in the past because of my opinions on FlyQuest (iykyk), but this version of FlyQuest might just be the most egregious.

I had my doubts when they made the obviously sideways move of replacing regali with story, but I really didn’t expect this. They’ve gone massively backwards as a team, and as TeaTime pointed out on Twitter, they barely even play the game.

You’ll still be like to hear one of them proudly shout “F-ck your pick’ems!” after narrowly avoiding embarrassment against their Aussie rivals, and that just about sums them up, really. Embarrassing.

And then there’s 9z. A team that everyone will be high on right now, thanks to PGL Astana, but a team I know better than to hype up.

We’ve seen this before. 9z went on a great run at IEM Dallas 2024, and what did they do afterwards? Oh right, yeah - f-ck all. They’re the biggest 0-3 candidate of all the teams currently qualified to Stage 2, and I’d probably bet my house (especially if I was signed up to Razed) they will be after the Stage 1 teams qualify, too.

F-ck this team.

That brings us nicely to the rest of the teams I couldn’t care less about: Lynn Vision, Sharks, and Gaimin Gladiators.

I understand why all of these teams have spots in the Major, so don’t feel like you need to be a smart arse and reply to this email with an explanation of regional spots. I just dislike that it's a thing, and I dislike it because of teams like this.

These teams will play between four and seven maps at the Major, and each one will be terrible to witness. EmiliaQAQ will at least provide some entertaining clips for Gaules, which gives Lynn Vision a mild pass, but seriously, why do these types of teams get to play at an event that’s meant to be the pinnacle of CS?

The teams I wish not to see

NA fans, this is the part where I tell you that you can no longer complain about representation, because I’m giving your teams their whole section.

I will preface this by saying M80’s inclusion in this list makes me sad, as I do genuinely like them a lot. But they just lost to Liquid, and that’s unforgivable. Especially after what Lake said.

Liquid themselves are an absolutely woeful team. A true misery to watch play CS. It’s gone from being quite funny a year ago to just downright sad now, and considering EliGE himself said they were lucky to make the Major despite the switch to the apparently easier region thanks to the malbsMd addition, I really hope the Major is the last time we see this roster play together.

It’s clear that ultimate needs to go, and siuhy or flashie probably need to, too. Build around your core of EliGE, NAF, and malbs, and you might get somewhere, but fail with those three and a fresh start? Just tear up their contracts.

That brings me to NRG, who, if not for Liquid and M80, would have been in the previous section.

I’m not moved by NRG. I don’t think I could ever be moved by NRG. Grim has been pretty bad since joining, and oSee has also been terrible after gaslighting everyone in IEM Krakow Stage 1.

Somehow, despite the existence of Liquid, NRG will be the NA team that bombs out of Cologne in the most embarrassing fashion, and the seven NA fans that still exist will have a little cry about it.

Just do yourself a favour, lads. Stop huffing the copium and go watch VALORANT if you want to see a team perform well.

The teams that are hard to rate

There are always surprises at the Major, and any of these teams could be them.

The first of those is BIG. BIG have been one of the better teams in tier two this year, but unlike a team like Monte, their exposure to tier one is non-existent. They also haven’t done as well as you’d hope when facing the higher calibre tier two opposition, and their run at the Major could be a lot shorter than many expect.

That said, there is something to be said about what playing in a home Major may do for them.

JDC has been in stellar form this year, and faveN is a very solid piece on the team. If playing for a spot in the LANXESS can be enough to spur those two on, and blameF and gr1ks can also play at their usual high levels, I don’t actually think playoffs is impossible.

Or at least, a heartbreaking 2-2 loss in Stage 3 is.

Then there’s SINNERS. SINNERS are a team who I won’t pretend to have watched much of, but when I have, I’ve been impressed by them. They play a decent brand of CS, and they could easily rack up enough wins to make it to Stage 2. Will they go further than that? I doubt it.

The hardest team to rate in this category, without a doubt, is MOUZ. They looked much better in Astana, right up until the point they played against Spirit, and then they looked dreadful. They could make playoffs, but I don’t think they will, so then it comes down to how they exit the tournament instead.

Also in this category are the likes of MIBR, B8, BetBoom, HEROIC, TYLOO, paiN, Monte, and Legacy.

All of these teams can be inconsistent, and all of them could beat each other, especially when you factor in BO1s.

For Monte, it’s a case of using their tier one experience and their tier two form in a much higher-pressure setting. For HEROIC, it’s about yxngstxr having a couple of decent games and not being AWP-diffed.

As for MIBR, it’s all about making kl1m show his domestic form internationally, B8 need to continue their upwards trajectory, whilst BetBoom and Legacy just have to do whatever they did in Atlanta.

Then there’s TYLOO, who might really benefit from the fact that they’ve been pretty absent from international competition this year. CAC will give us a better opinion of that, but TYLOO, thanks to JamYoung, can always be dangerous.

The playoff contenders

This is the part of this story where you realise just how wide open this Major actually is.

When you look at the rest of the teams I’ve not yet mentioned, every single one of them is in contention to make the playoffs, and most of them also have a reason why they won’t make it.

Take Astralis, for example. They’ve been impressive for most of the year, but are slowing down at the worst possible time. phzy just had a terrible time in Atlanta (0.85 rating) and ryu just isn’t cut out for tier one competition. Individual step-ups could see them scrape through the 2-2 games, and Stage 3 should be a guarantee, but anything can happen in the BO1s.

The same can be said for G2. huNter-’s form while IGLing from decent spots has now become egregious, and the team still has some serious composure issues. They should be a playoff team, but they should’ve been a consistent playoff team after winning BLAST Open London. Something just isn’t clicking for G2, and it feels like Cologne should be the last time we see this five-man roster play together.

Then there’s FUT. My heart tells me that if any team is going to pull off a Cloud9 or Gambit-esque run - although a GamerLegion-esque run may be more likely - it’s FUT. They’re a great team, and they’re very fun to watch, but their run in Atlanta was worrisome, and they need to rediscover their form in order to make the Major playoffs.

Speaking of worrisome form, we have PARIVISION. Alongside FUT, Jame and co. are the breakout stars of this year, and they’ve had some stellar runs. That said, they’ve now massively trailed off, and the form of nota, BELCHONOKKK, and xiELO is exceedingly concerning.

They’re now in the same boat as G2 when it comes to their roster running its course, and it seems dastan knows it, with the coach being very honest in interviews following their dismal 1-3 exit from PGL Astana.

On the flipside, there’s GamerLegion, who are in fine form right now. They placed second in Atlanta, and in the top four at BLAST Rivals before that, and the star trio of REZ, PR, and hypex are all showing up when it matters most. The playoffs are probably unlikely because of the fact they start their tournament lives in Stage 1, but it’s absolutely possible, and I’ve seen a GamerLegion team do crazier things at a Major.

Finally, there’s Aurora and The MongolZ. Aurora are certainly the better of the two teams right now, and aren’t as reliant on Anubis as they were in the past, but they seem to just perform worse when it comes to Majors, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them disappoint yet again in Cologne.

As for The MongolZ, they probably should have been in the previous category, because I truly don’t know how good they are. They’re definitely worse than they were with Senzu, and quarter-finals are absolutely their upper limit, but are they that much worse that they should be ruled out? I don’t think so.

The title contenders

A month ago, this spot would’ve been solely occupied by Vitality, and I do think they're still the most likely, but it’s not as simple as it once was.

Being realistic, losing how they did in Atlanta was probably the best thing for Vitality. They rightfully took time off before Rivals and Atlanta, but that time off eventually caught up to them as they lost to both BetBoom and NAVI, and only really scraped by against multiple teams in Fort Worth.

They’ll now go home and practice off the back of a solid wake-up call, and that probably makes them more dangerous than ever.

That said, their closest rivals are more dangerous than ever, too. NAVI now have the confidence that they can beat them, whilst kyousuke finally showing up in an arena playoffs makes Falcons infinitely more dangerous. Given that FURIA will also have the extra motivation to deliver FalleN one last Major before he bows out, they shouldn’t be counted out even with their recent showings in mind.

The most dangerous of all, though, is Spirit. Although, unfortunately, there is a caveat to that.

In the absence of hally, Spirit have looked incredible with S0tf1k. Their playstyle is remarkably different and entirely for the better, with tN1R being granted the freedom to actually play the game, and with magixx throwing a fantastic number of flashbangs.

I know they got beaten 3-0 by Vitality at IEM Rio, the first of the two hally-less events, but I’m not sure that scoreline would be the same had the two squared off in Atlanta. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that the Astana version of Spirit could potentially beat Vitality with a consistency that no other team could.

So, it all really depends on what version of Spirit we get at the Major. This new version of Spirit could absolutely win it, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they did.

But, if hally returns to the team, and the playstyle regresses… well, a lot of questions will need to be asked, and the chances of Vitality winning will increase dramatically as a result.