As was evident in the lead-up to the Budapest Major, the VRS era has dramatically changed the hoops a team have to jump through when it comes to qualifying for a Major.

I leave it as an exercise to the reader to decide if that sentence should end with “for the better” or “for the worse”.

I think it’s very exciting. Finally, there’s some relevance to the games that I slog through every week, beyond just who will make an extra $500 in prize money. Now there’s millions riding on the tiny events I obsess over.

Granted, they can be hard to navigate.

Pop quiz - if your favourite team missed the Budapest Major last year, can you remember at which event or in which match they lost that chance?

Most likely, no.

That’s where us nerds aren’t so bad after all.

In just under two weeks’ time, the teams attending the Cologne Major will be locked in, and dozens - if not hundreds - of LAN games are still yet to be played that could drastically reorder the ranking.

Thanks to the excellent work of MischiefCS2 on Twitter, who has simulated thousands of different potential results, we know the statistical likelihood of each team making the Major. Any time I use numbers further on, I am referring to his work, unless otherwise specified.

Welcome to the tier two jungle.

AI enhanced. Source: EWC / Tyler Grenfell

In free fall

The day-to-day experience of FaZe Clan’s managers must be filled with panic attacks and waking up in cold sweats.

If it isn’t, they’re not taking their job seriously enough.

To say FaZe are in a really bad situation is a take as ice cold as broky’s frigid stats sheet, but their troubles are deeper than some may think. With the loss to TYLOO in mind, consider that FaZe have only won three matches - in total - since the year started.

Despite entering 2026 as the seventh-best-ranked team in the world and reigning Major silver medalists, they have less than a fifty-fifty chance of even making it to the Cologne Major.

It’s gotten so bad that FaZe Clan - FaZe Clan - a team defined by legends like NiKo, olofmeister, GuardiaN, rain, karrigan, ropz, Twistzz, and frozen… will be playing in DraculaN Season 6 to save their Major hopes.

Ugh.

They’ve already fallen out of the plane, and a small LAN in Romania is their parachute. To me, it really is a coin flip if they float into a low-seed invite to the Major when they pull the cord, or if they go splat.

A team like FaZe should absolutely walk over the scrub teams that have signed up to the event, at least enough to make a deep playoff run. But look me in the eye when you answer this question…

Will they?

Seriously, you saw them lose to TYLOO as well. Would you bet the house on them beating MOUZ NXT?

I wouldn’t make that bet.

What’s worse is that the team put themselves here largely through decisions made on their own. A few weeks ago, I could have said the same thing about teams like 3DMAX, NIP, or Liquid, but they’ve taken much more conscious steps to prevent such a flop by securing spots at more events.

Liquid took a chance on malbsMd to swap over to the American ranking, while 3DMAX and NIP have hedged their bets on more than one LAN rather than just the one FaZe are going to. These moves are far more favourable, in theory, though NIP have since basically thrown their chance away at BLAST Open Rotterdam.

FaZe had every chance to do the same thing - there are no clashes with tier one events for teams at the next Roman Imperium Cup, Stake Ranked, Parken Challenger Championship or the BC.Game Masters events, where teams in a similar situation are hunting their last few valuable wins.

And personally, I’m happy they’re dying.

Before the match against TYLOO, Pimp described the current FaZe roster as a bird hit by a car, injured but still squeaking, waiting to have its neck snapped and be put out of its misery. I too am tired of watching frozen and Twistzz waste away in a project that very clearly won’t ever again amount to anything.

It’s a matter of time before some team comes along and ends their misery. On the 29th of March, every team in DraculaN will have a chance to do exactly that.

Breathing down their necks

Realistically, there are five teams in Europe currently able to overtake FaZe - BIG, B8, BetBoom, K27, and Alliance. I ask you again, dear reader, do you really take FaZe to beat these teams consistently?

Per expert analysis, BIG have a bigger chance of making the Major than FaZe. That may surprise some of you, as many seem to have missed just how well BIG have recovered from being the laughing stock of high-level Counter-Strike.

blameF and gr1ks have really made this team exciting to watch again. They still haven’t been tested against good opposition - though they’re likely to face some decent teams in the upcoming LAN events - but no other team in Europe are smurfing on lower opposition to the same degree as BIG.

So far in 2026, they’ve made the grand final of every single non-qualifier competition they’ve attended. Beating out FaZe to a Major spot on home soil would sure be a nice cherry on top.

B8 and BetBoom are two stories of missed potential, and I see them more as declining teams than rising ones. Two national rosters with stagnated development that have fallen out of tier one competition and are seemingly struggling to climb back up.

s1zzi is an uninspiring addition to a team that is infuriatingly close to a good lineup. Especially considering the wealth of Ukrainian talent stuck on Inner Circle and Fnatic, I’d have hoped to see a better B8 squad by now.

Add to that the recent news of visa issues affecting d1Ledez and ArtFr0st in BetBoom, meaning that if they do qualify for the Major, they’ll have to play the Major with at least one out of FL4MUS and zorte, and give stickers to both. Awkward.

K27 are more interesting to me as a younger squad of players rapidly proving themselves in tier two play. They ran a gauntlet through the ongoing ECL season, which has put them with a near-fifty-fifty chance at making it.

Consider for a second that this is a small Russian organisation with very young players. Granted, it still wouldn’t be cheap, but I think this was a fully realistic core for VP to buy. Instead we’re f-cking about with mir.

That being said, difficulty routinely traveling to European LANs means they’ve had to put all their eggs in one basket - a single tournament in Moscow. None of their opponents there have a hope of qualifying, so the objective is simple: win or bust.

Finally, with just north of a 13% chance of making the Major, there’s one challenger I am backing to take it all the way.

It’s coming home

If EYEBALLERS did it, then so can Alliance.

Bolstered by a loan of MaiL09 from Metizport Alliance have more or less swept the 2026 spring season so far and are inching closer to a Major than any Swedish team has been in the VRS era.

I am ecstatic, as some of you surely can imagine.

Better yet, out of the five teams that are chasing FaZe’s Major spot, the Swedes are the only ones attending the same event as them. This gives them a unique chance to not only surpass them in the rankings, but deal the killing blow that sends frozen to NAVI.

It’s not just the MaiL09 show either. The kid’s 1.20 rating for the year is almost matched by eraa, currently one of the best performing AWPers in tier two Counter-Strike. avid has done a great job filling poiii’s shoes in the opening roles, and with one of the highest T-side winrates in the world so far, twist is looking like a tactical mastermind.

Most of all, this is a team that is having fun.

I’ve watched this team for over three years now, and for most of that time I’ve seen more lows than highs. The dejected shrug I got from robiin after a last-place elimination in 2024’s ESL Challenger Jönköping burns in my mind every time I think about my country’s competitive scene in the past few years.

It’s the same look as was on hampus’ face in the post-match interview after Metizport’s 0-3 run in the Austin Major - a pure feeling of “there’s nothing more we can do”.

I don’t relate to this feeling anymore.

Never before have I seen vibes this good, the players gelling this well, and the stars performing this highly.

This team knows they can make the Major. I know they can make the Major. My gut feeling, despite what the numbers say, is that they will make the Major.

March madness

A smorgasbord of smaller LAN events will decide who makes the Major, and it will be difficult to follow all the important games, even for those of us who don’t use the star filter on HLTV’s match page.

As previously mentioned, FaZe and Alliance will fight for a spot in Cologne during the upcoming edition of DraculaN. This event is the final one either team plays before the cut-off, and when the dust settles on the 2nd of April, we will know with near-certainty if they made the Major or not.

Interestingly enough, Liquid and Passion UA are also attending this event. The latter needs a decent performance to lock in one of the last few American spots. The former practically only need to put the shoes out, a formality to move the team to the Americas ranking. Though a few wins surely wouldn’t hurt.

Several of the teams in the hunt are attending events like Urban Riga Open, BC.Game Masters, Journey Spring and Parken Challenger Championship, but really these are mostly nice stepping stones on the way.

The real showdown will come in Barcelona, during the $100,000 Stake Ranked. Gentle Mates need a few more games to lock in their qualification, while NIP, B8 and BetBoom will make a final push trying to cling to what little Major hopes they have left.

BIG, the leading team in the chasing pack, have decided to pack their schedule with a multitude of LAN tournaments, but their fates will be decided by the 30th of March in Portugal during the Roman Imperium Cup.

Weirdly enough, this story about old legends falling out of relevance includes the potential for a triumphant resurgence from tabseN, which is an excellent twist thrown in by the script writers, honestly.

Alliance making it would, of course, be the most compelling storyline. For the same reason I picked The MongolZ in the Austin Pick ‘Em, I’d argue you need to back Alliance - because if you don’t and they still make it, you will regret it forever.

A first Major for MaiL09. Underrated, talented players getting to show what they’re worth on the highest level. twist, years since his time on fnatic and NIP, proving himself as an IGL worth reckoning with.

These storylines are too good not to come true. Cologne will be our Major.