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GUIDES
Simple Radar
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The biggest Major of all time approaches its climax.
The biggest Major of all time is down to its final eight, and things are about to get spicy.
What's waiting below? An underdog flipping off the entire server (not literally), a South American derby that's frankly cinema, and a Vitality vs. Falcons clash that might be the real final.
Let's get into it.
If you thought that was a fat joke, it’s not, and shame on you for thinking that.
BetBoom had everything going against them heading into the Major. Two players were hit with visa issues, forcing the team to qualify with stand-ins on short notice. Despite making a great run at IEM Atlanta in the lead-up to Cologne, Boombl4 even said there that their practice was very limited.
And yet, after taking down Falcons, FUT, and The MongolZ - here they stand.
Aurora have had a decent run all things considered. XANTARES standing in the quarter-final of the Cologne Major was probably unexpected for many ahead of the event.
But their run hasn’t exactly been convincing. Wins over G2, Monte, and 9z don’t exactly inspire - especially when they also were quite handily beaten by Spirit. Just because they step into the LANXESS it doesn’t change the fact - this is the same old Aurora.
The potential for upsets in the Cologne quarter-finals is slim pickings, but hidden away in Thursday’s opening slot - the game nobody will watch, unfortunately - a golden SCAR is waiting for you to put them in your Pick ‘Ems.
As if you’re getting more than a gold coin anyway. Live a little.
It’s clear as day to us, because BetBoom have it all. Their players are better. Their caller is better. Their run so far is better. Their vibes are immaculate.
Add to this, we imagine Fabre is either quaking in his boots or completely checked out, given yesterday’s rumour about a certain Englishman rapidly approaching the team’s coaching chair. And if we’re being honest, woxic should probably be sweating as well.
All Major long, BetBoom have been raising a middle finger to anyone thinking they’re not good enough, and there’s no reason they’d stop now. And facing FURIA in the semi-final - who knows what happens then?
Well, if the answer to that question isn’t FURIA winning, they might as well sell molodoy to Aurora immediately.
Brazil vs. Argentina.
Latin America’s finest going head-to-head in the Cathedral of Counter-Strike with a place in the Major semis on the line. Absolute f-cking cinema.
No joke - outside of the obvious Vitality vs. Falcons banger - we genuinely believe this is the most exciting quarterfinal matchup.
FURIA has looked unstoppable throughout their time in Cologne so far, sweeping Stage 3 with ease. Sure, they didn’t exactly face the toughest of opposition, but their CS was still incredibly convincing. They held a red-hot BetBoom to just 12 rounds across two maps, something no other team managed to do.
The key question heading into the Playoffs and the first clash with 9z is whether molodoy can carry his Stage 3 form onto the Arena, where he has struggled to reach those peaks. If he can - with Spirit, Vitality, and Falcons all on the opposite side of the bracket - FURIA have a genuine shot at making a very deep run and perhaps even going all the way.
And in what is FalleN’s last Cologne, seeing him lift the Major trophy would be poetic.
But first, FURIA has to get past 9z, and you know that’s not going to be easy. They have come to play, as made abundantly clear throughout Stages 2 and 3, showing they can go toe-to-toe with the big boys. dgt proved his time in paiN (how fitting) did not count, while luchov has finally been given the opportunity - a fully earned one at that - to showcase his incredible talent on CS’ biggest stage, after the whole BESTIA saga back in Austin.
Perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding 9z isn’t really talent, but experience. Major Playoffs are a completely different beast, and there may be no tougher introduction than a Major quarterfinal in the LANXESS Arena.
max touched on the topic in a recent interview, saying that “the Playoffs in Astana helped us, [for this] to not be the first arena for the team. We know how it’s going to be”.
Thing is, we’re not really sure you do. There’s hardly a comparison between a Playoffs match in Astana and a LANXESS Arena during an IEM Cologne Major. The scale and the pressure are on an entirely different level, and how 9z respond to that environment could well end up being the deciding factor in the series.
FURIA has been here before: a Major quarterfinal, a fellow South American opponent, and the crushing weight of expectations firmly on their shoulders.
They were favourites then, too.
And you know what they say… history tends to repeat itself.
No one on the upper-side of the bracket has a layup win in front of them as the case is with the lower-side.
Having said that though, Spirit’s form is so exceptional right now that we find it hard to imagine that Spirit (1.28) won’t just roll over G2 (3.35) in two maps anyway.
One benefit of that is that no one's time has to be wasted, but an even bigger benefit comes from a deal our partners Razed are offering this Major.
In any game that ends as a 2-0, you’ll earn double profits if the team you backed comes out on top. So get involved and join in on the fun at Razed.
Odds at time of writing
Illustration by Fuffy, Source: ESL, PGL
In this week’s episode, Quacke and Sam look back on all the chaos that occurred in the third swiss stage of Cologne. NAVI certainly weren’t expected to bomb out, but hey, that’s what you get for having iM on your team.
The reward for G2 clawing through a 3-2 rollercoaster — capped by a 2-1 over NAVI — is a quarterfinal date with the scariest team on the planet. Congratulations, we suppose.
Spirit, the world #3 to G2's #12, roll in on a 12-map win streak — and they flat-out own this matchup, having swept G2 2-0 at both IEM Rio and PGL Astana. G2 didn't take a single map off them across either series; their high-water mark was a pair of 13-11 losses, and Dust2 did the damage both times. Worth remembering that one.
And then there's the man himself. donk treated Stage 2 like a string of FACEIT lobbies, posting a 2.27 rating, the highest ever recorded in a single Major stage, and he hasn't exactly cooled off since, sitting on a 1.53 and a +41 kill difference through Stage 3. There isn't a team alive built to stop that… least of all this one.
The truly grim part for G2, though? Stopping donk isn't even enough. Back in Rio, he stumbled to a 0.90 on Dust2 and Spirit won anyway, because magixx and sh1ro simply took over and buried G2 for him. That's the nightmare of a team this deep; they don't need their superstar firing to beat you. And this Major he is firing, with sh1ro smurfing alongside him at a 1.34, comfortably outscoring anything G2 can muster. Their answer is HeavyGod — fitting, because nothing short of an act from one gets them out of this.
Not that the cavalry's coming. SunPayus has been quietly underwhelming since the day he joined — plenty of kills, a tidy +102 kill differential over the last three months, but next to no impact to show for them, his rating idling at 1.03 and dipping to 0.99 here in Cologne.
That leaves HeavyGod, G2's one genuinely dependable man, to carry the load alone — and he can't, not with NertZ scraping the floor and MATYS offering his customary nothing.
There is, in theory, one lifeline: Inferno. Spirit have flat-out refused to touch it all season, and it happens to be G2's single strongest map. In practice, that just means Spirit will take it first off the board, leaving G2 to pick their poison between donk's beloved Dust2 and a row of maps Spirit are comfortably better on.
Set an early-lunch alarm, this one probably won't take long. The day's real contest comes after it, when Falcons take on a Vitality side hungry for revenge after coming off second best in their last meeting at Rio.
We know how well Spirit have been playing so far in Cologne, but is it crazy to suggest that the winner of the Major will 100% come from this game?
And is it even crazier to suggest that we have absolutely zero clue which of the two teams it will be?
Everything points towards it being Vitality. They’re back-to-back Major winners. The greatest team of all time. They never crumble under pressure and NiKo is on the other side of the server.
But.
Falcons just kind of have some juice in this event. It’s certainly not from karrigan’s fragging, but it might be from his ability to “wee woo” them out of the tightest corners, some innate ability to bullsh-t his way through an overtime that we all thought was tied to FaZe, rather than the man himself.
It’s this intangible impact that both NiKo and TeSeS have spoken to us about. An intangible impact that can’t be ignored, especially when his sacrifices on the server also enable kyousuke and m0NESY to become extremely deadly forces.
That said, Vitality have their own bullsh-t. They’re not Astralis, they don’t just suffocate teams in the most boring manner you’ve ever seen, as Fr-cnh as they are, they enjoy the romance of CS. The comeback. The overtime. In that sense, there’s never been a team better suited to go up against karrigan’s late-game antics.
For these reasons, we know that this could well be the greatest game of these playoffs, and perhaps only the semi-final that comes from it could top it.
But it’s also for these reasons why we’re adamant that one of these two teams will win the whole damn thing, and whichever one it is, is a win for Counter-Strike in our books.
